HT Explains: A 5-Point FAQ on the Lok Sabha Battle in Punjab

HT Explains: A 5-point FAQ on the Lok Sabha battle in Punjab

Farm unions have disrupted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s campaign, blocked its candidates from entering villages, and called for their boycott.

All 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab will be up for grabs in the seventh and final phase of polling on June 1, with the farm crisis emerging as one of the major issues. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is contesting independently, despite forming an alliance with the Congress in neighboring Haryana and Delhi. Here are the five questions that will be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2024 contest in Punjab, which is poised for a four-cornered battle:

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing the brunt of the farmers' anger. Farm unions have disrupted the BJP's campaign, prevented its candidates from entering villages, and called for their boycott. This is expected to damage the party's rural outreach, which is crucial as the BJP is contesting independently in the state for the first time since 1996. Previously, the BJP relied on its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for rural votes in elections from 1996 to 2019. Now, it needs to expand its presence beyond the Hindu-dominated urban areas to broaden its support base. Additionally, opposition from farmers has overshadowed the party's strategic inclusion of Sikh faces, many of whom defected from the Congress, and who are contesting in six out of the 13 seats.

The BJP aims to broaden its influence beyond its traditional stronghold in urban areas by contesting all 13 Lok Sabha seats for the first time since 1996, following the termination of its alliance with SAD three years ago due to the now-repealed farm laws, which sparked prolonged protests. Despite winning two out of three seats it contested in 2019, the party is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Ram temple issue for electoral support. However, the Modi factor did not yield significant results for the SAD-BJP alliance in both the 2014 and 2019 elections. With rural Punjab showing resistance to the party due to backlash from farm unions, the BJP is relying on counter-polarization in urban areas. It remains uncertain whether the party will make headway in rural Punjab or continue to be perceived as a Brahmin-Bania party.

AAP appears to be in the lead, having secured a landslide victory in 2022 with 92 seats out of 117 in the assembly. It faces a tough competition from the Congress in at least 10 out of 13 Lok Sabha seats. AAP relies on populist measures such as providing 300 units of free electricity to households, the clean image of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, and his down-to-earth campaign style, which resonates with the voters.

AAP's strongest performance in Punjab's Lok Sabha elections was in its debut in 2014 when it won four seats with 24.40% of the votes. While AAP may not reach the 42% vote share it received in the assembly polls, it seems poised to make significant gains.

The parliamentary elections offer an opportunity for both the Congress and Akalis following the setback in the 2022 assembly elections. However, the Congress appears to have brighter prospects. Despite winning eight Lok Sabha seats with a 40.12% vote share in 2019, the party struggled in the state polls, securing only 18 out of 117 seats with a 23% vote share. The Congress faced defections leading up to the parliamentary polls, but it is banking on anti-incumbency sentiment against the AAP government, former party chief Rahul Gandhi's anti-BJP stance, and the participation of prominent figures such as Charanjit Channi, Raja Warring, Sukhjinder Randhawa, and Sukhpal Khaira to bolster its chances.

For the Akalis, it is a fight for survival after their vote share plummeted to 18.38% in 2022, reflecting a waning support base among Sikhs and farmers. The party has reverted to its core religious agenda in an attempt to regain favor among Sikhs while also seeking to appease the farming community. While the Congress appears to be on the upswing, the Akalis may continue to face challenges.

There are no indications of a resurgence in pro-Khalistan sentiment despite radical Sikh leader Amritpal Singh's candidacy from Khadoor Sahib as an independent. Singh, currently detained in Assam's Dibrugarh jail under the National Security Act, has refrained from promoting separatist ideology in his campaign, unlike before his arrest last year. Managed by his parents and supporters, the campaign portrays him as an advocate against drug abuse and a Sikh preacher, seeking votes for his release from detention. Rather than reviving pro-Khalistani sentiments, Singh's candidacy may moderate his image. Sangrur Member of Parliament Simranjit Singh Mann, a longstanding sympathizer of Khalistan, and the head of an Akali faction, is the sole supporter of Amritpal Singh.